Cuba — daily briefing, 25 September 2026
US SOUTHCOM vs Cuba and aligned states · 18 verified events · 6 sources · 4 locations
What the data shows
Global Conflict Awareness recorded 18 verified events in the Cuba theatre on 25 September 2026, drawn from 6 distinct sources and geolocated to 4 locations. Relative to the seven preceding days, when the theatre averaged 20 events a day, this is an ordinary day — close to the recent baseline. Volume alone is a weak signal, because several outlets covering one event inflate the count; the sections below separate reporting intensity from actual activity.
Attribution between the two sides
6 events are attributed to US / SOUTHCOM and 12 to Cuba. Cuba therefore accounts for about 67% of attributable activity. A split this lopsided usually reflects one side holding the initiative rather than uneven reporting, because both camps' media are ingested. Attribution describes who is reported to have acted; it is not a finding of responsibility.
Where activity concentrated
The most reported locations were Venezuela (11), Cuba (5), La habana (1), Washington (1). Concentration is high — the leading location alone carries 61% of the day — which usually indicates a sustained exchange in one area rather than dispersed activity. Countries involved: Venezuela, Cuba, USA.
US / SOUTHCOM activity centred on Venezuela (4) and Cuba (1); Cuba activity centred on Venezuela (7) and Cuba (4). When the two sides' geographies do not overlap, the theatre is behaving as two parallel campaigns rather than a single front.
Timing through the day
Reporting peaked around 22:00 UTC. The day splits into 1 events overnight (00–06), 11 in daytime (06–18) and 6 in the evening (18–24). A daytime-heavy profile typically reflects incidents reported through the working day and official statements; a single sharp peak often means one event was covered by many outlets at once.
Corroboration and source base
16 of the 18 events occurred at locations reported by at least two independent outlets that day; the other 2 rest on a single source and should be weighted accordingly. The day's reporting came from 6 outlets, the most active being El Nacional VE (9), Tal Cual (3), OnCuba News (3), RFI ES (1). The leading outlet supplied 50% of the day's items — a dependence worth keeping in mind when reading the map.
What changed since the previous briefing
Event volume is down by 5 (22%), from 23 to 18. Attribution to US / SOUTHCOM moved from 8 to 6, and to Cuba from 15 to 12.
No new locations appear: activity stayed within the areas already reported. 1 previously reported locations went quiet (Florida). Geographic displacement is the clearest signal in this data — more reliable than volume, which moves with reporting intensity.
Most corroborated events
The 12 best-corroborated events of the day, out of 18. Headlines are truncated and attributed; the full record is on the live map.
| UTC | Location | Coordinates | Attributed to | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | Cuba | No hay pausa en los métodos blandos de la represión, por Rafael Uzcátegui Tal Cual |
| 06:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | Cuba | La SIP pide apertura total a los medios en Venezuela tras 27 años de un catálogo de… El Nacional VE |
| 07:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | US / SOUTHCOM | Venezuela y el riesgo de un autoritarismo digital potenciado por la IA china Tal Cual |
| 07:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | US / SOUTHCOM | Peligro en las redes por la proliferación de la pseudociencia y el intrusismo digital… El Nacional VE |
| 08:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | Cuba | Venezuela: Manifestantes piden la vuelta de la Nobel de la Paz María Corina Machado al… RFI ES |
| 10:00 | Cuba | 21.52, -77.78 | US / SOUTHCOM | Las tensiones entre EEUU y Cuba aumentan mientras el Pentágono prepara un campo de… OnCuba News |
| 10:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | Cuba | Delcy Rodríguez regresa a Venezuela y llama a colaborar con el ahorro energético El Nacional VE |
| 11:00 | Cuba | 21.52, -77.78 | Cuba | Cómo la turística Santa Marta se convirtió en la primera prueba de fuego de la lucha de… BBC Mundo |
| 14:00 | Cuba | 21.52, -77.78 | Cuba | Etecsa “reorganiza sus prioridades” debido a la crisis energética en Cuba OnCuba News |
| 16:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | US / SOUTHCOM | Peña y Mulino dialogan sobre el restablecimiento de la democracia en Venezuela Tal Cual |
| 16:00 | Venezuela | 6.42, -66.59 | US / SOUTHCOM | Colombia exigió ante la ONU una transición democrática en Venezuela El Nacional VE |
| 16:00 | Cuba | 21.52, -77.78 | Cuba | Ejército de EEUU se prepara para una posible acción militar en torno a Cuba, según CBS OnCuba News |